Literature review on the integration of ecosystem services in agricultural economic models

Most analytic tools used in assessing gains from investments in agricultural research either fail to take into consideration environmental impacts or, if they do, it is at a very limited level. The CGIAR Research Programs adopt a systems approach and require a fully integrated consideration of biodiversity and ecosystems services (ESS). This document therefore reviews existing methodologies and available data to identify how biodiversity and ESS can be integrated into analyses at multiple scales; households, farms, landscapes, agriculture sector and economy-wide. The literature review is also designed to identify possible synergies between models at different scales to enable a better understanding of trade-offs between agricultural systems, their environment and human well-being

Integrating biodiversity and ecosystem services into the economic analysis of agricultural systems

Based on existing literature, this paper outlines the relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem services and food security. It additionally reviews tools which can be used to integrate biodiversity and ecosystem services into analytic frameworks to allow a better understanding of the trade-offs between different agricultural systems and their ecosystem service provisioning, as well as the resulting impact on productivity and human well-being

Global food efficiency of climate change mitigation in agriculture

Concerns exist regarding potential trade-offs between climate change mitigation in agriculture and food security. Against this background, the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) is applied to a range of scenarios of mitigation of emissions from agriculture to assess the implications of climate mitigation for agricultural production, prices and food availability. The “food efficiency of mitigation” (FEM) is introduced as a tool to make statements about how to attain desired levels of agricultural mitigation in the most efficient manner in terms of food security. It is applied to a range of policy scenarios which contrast a climate policy regime with full global collaboration to scenarios of fragmented climate policies that grant exemptions to selected developing country groups. Results indicate increasing marginal costs of abatement in terms of food calories and suggest that agricultural mitigation is most food efficient in a policy regime with global collaboration. Exemptions from this regime cause food efficiency losse

Global food efficiency of climate change mitigation in agriculture

Concerns exist regarding potential trade-offs between climate change mitigation in agriculture and food security. Against this background, the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) is applied to a range of scenarios of mitigation of emissions from agriculture to assess the implications of climate mitigation for agricultural production, prices and food availability. The " food efficiency of mitigation " (FEM) is introduced as a tool to make statements about how to attain desired levels of agricultural mitigation in the most efficient manner in terms of food security. It is applied to a range of policy scenarios which contrast a climate policy regime with full global collaboration to scenarios of fragmented climate policies that grant exemptions to selected developing country groups. Results indicate increasing marginal costs of abatement in terms of food calories and suggest that agricultural mitigation is most food efficient in a policy regime with global collaboration. Exemptions from this regime cause food efficiency losses

Climate change adaptation in agriculture: Ex ante analysis of promising and alternative crop technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT

Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a rigorous multidisciplinary approach. To answer this challenge, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has developed a system of linked simulation models of global agriculture to do long-run scenario analysis of the effects of climate change and various adaptation strategies. This system includes the core International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), which is linked to water models (global hydrology, water basin management, and water stress on crops) and crop simulation models. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by IFPRI in collaboration with other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve these tools and conducting ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments, and policies under alternative global futures. Baseline projections from IMPACT set the foundation with the latest outlook on long-term trends in food demand and agricultural production based on projected changes in population, income, technology, and climate. On top of the baseline, scenarios are developed for assessing the impacts of promising climate-adapted technologies for maize, wheat, rice, potatoes, sorghum, groundnut, and cassava on yields, area, production, trade, and prices in 2050 at a variety of scales. Yield gains from adoption of the selected technologies vary by technology and region, but are found to be generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) the adverse effects of climate change under a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5). Even more important in this long-term climate change scenario are effects of growth in population, income, and investments in overall technological change, highlighting the importance of linked assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses. For all crops in the selected countries, climate change impacts are negative with the baseline technology. All new technologies have beneficial effects on yields under climate change, with combined traits (drought and heat tolerance) showing the greatest benefi

Comparing modeling approaches for assessing priorities in international agricultural research

This article examines how the estimated impacts of crop technologies vary with alternate methods and assumptions, and also discusses the implications of these differences for the design of studies to inform research prioritization. Drawing on international potato research, we show how foresight scenarios, realized by a multi-period global multi-commodity equilibrium model, can affect the estimated magnitudes of welfare impacts and the ranking of different potato research options, as opposed to the static, single-commodity, and country assumptions of the economic surplus model which is commonly used in priority setting studies. Our results suggest that the ranking of technologies is driven by the data used for their specification and is not affected by the foresight scenario examined. However, net benefits vary significantly in each scenario and are greatly overestimated when impacts on non-target countries are ignored. We also argue that the validity of the single-commodity assumption underpinning the economic surplus model is case-specific and depends on the interventions examined and on the objectives and criteria included in a priority setting study

Prioritizing international agricultural research investments: lessons from a global multi-crop assessment

Open Access Article; Published online: 17 Jan 2022Investments in international agricultural research have proven very successful at an aggregated level over the past decades. Decision makers, however, face the tough question of how best to allocate limited public funds across increasingly diverse research areas to achieve the largest impacts. Simultaneously, donors demand more accountability from research institutions with regards to use of funds and resulting impacts on food and nutrition security, the environment, gender equality and poverty reduction. From 2012-2014, the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB) undertook a systematic, quantitative ex-ante priority assessment across five key crops to inform its strategic research portfolio decisions. In-depth studies were conducted for cassava, banana, potato, sweetpotato, and yams with a harmonized methodological framework. The assessments comprised: 1) elicitation of major production constraints and research opportunities through global expert surveys; 2) identification of priority research interventions; 3) ex ante estimation of costs and benefits for two adoption scenarios using partial equilibrium economic surplus models; and 4) poverty impact simulations. Results suggest substantial, although variable benefits for all assessed potential research investments and provide a range of impact indicators (adoption area, number of beneficiaries, net present value, internal rate of return, and poverty reduction). The findings have since informed the research portfolio development of RTB and were critical for continued program funding in the second phase. This paper presents the methodology and results and then focuses on the policy implications and lessons learned to strengthen future priority assessments in agricultural research